Economists from a collection of American universities and institutions have recently published predictions on the impact of AI on the US economy. The data from this paper was created by surveying populations of economists, AI experts, as well as random people. This new blog series will highlights key findings and further explores how these trends may impact Washington State’s economy.
What the survey of experts indicates about the impact of AI on the US economy:
- AI performance will progress at “moderate or rapid” pace, but the data suggests possibility of “transformative growth”
- AI progress will not have cause a significant increase in GDP and growth will most likely follow recent macroeconomic baseline.
- AI will drive growth in some occupational families, while simultaneously eroding others.
- Efficiency gains will drive earnings to be concentrated to the top 10% of earners.
- Economists and the general public disagree on how to respond to AI’s economic impacts. While economists favor retraining over job guarantees and UBI, while the public favors both types of solutions.
Figure 1: Graph of predicted US GPD growth given varying rates of AI performance improvement
Figure 2 : Graph of predicted changes to job growth accross US Occupations
Impacts of AI on Washington’s Economy
Seeing these predictions for the impact of AI on a national level, it’s worth asking several questions pertaining to how AI transformation will change the shape of Washington’s economy. The following are the top 10 questions on the topic. Subsequent posts will explore each of these questions in more detail:
- What do Washington’s universities and economic policy advisors predict about the impact of AI here relative to other parts of the country. What guidance is being shared with local and state policy makers on these issues?
- Will the impacts of AI have more or less impact on Washington’s economy compared to other parts of the country and world?
- What should Washingtonian businesses do now to improve outcomes?
- What local economic policies will help or hinder Washingtonians to prosper in the future as the impacts of AI change the shapes of the local economy?
- Will AI progress significantly change Washington’s GDP from baseline predictions?
- How do national and regional trends compare to Washington what are the most influential variables
- Where does Washington rank among other states for leveraging AI to drive economic development?
- Will gains be made by only large companies or will the technology and adoption progress in such a manner as to broaden gains?
- How will AI progress and value creation be absorbed into earnings distribution?
- What policies should state and local officials put in place to respond to these predictions?
While AI has already had a significant impact on some occupations in Washington, experts and non-experts alike are watching to see if AI will live up to the hype and deliver transformative impacts on the state’s GDP, job-market, purchasing power, and income distribution. Follow our blog to read future posts exploring this topic and share your thoughts in the comments.